Experts give explanations and comments on hot weather when it is mid-November.
Mid-November is still hot in the North
According to the forecast of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the average temperature of August-September 2022 in the Northern region is about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average for many years; October 2022 at approximate level (TBNN); November-December, 2022 is about 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the average; In January 2023, the temperature was approximately average of the same period in the same period.
However, it was winter and it was mid-November, people in the North still felt the heat, even many people had to wear short-sleeved shirts when going out. The highest daily temperature forecast for nearly a month fluctuates at 30 degrees Celsius.
Statistics from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting show that, from the beginning of October until now, although there are still cold air waves, only a cold air wave strengthens from October 18 to October 20 causing cold weather in the North.
The lowest temperature is common from 14-17 degrees Celsius, lower mountainous areas. In which, the high mountains in many places are below 11 degrees Celsius. Besides, the Gulf of Tonkin area has observed strong northeasterly winds of level 6 and gusts of level 7.
In November, the average temperature in the North and the North Central region is 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average for many years. Around the middle of the week and the second half of December, the North of our country will receive the first cold and damaging cold wave in the winter of 2022.
Answering PV VTC News, Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy, an expert in warning of natural disasters and extreme weather, said that this year, La Nina is in the late stage, preparing to switch to the neutral phase, starting from the beginning of 2023. La Nina turns to neutral phase, rain and cold decrease, turns to warm and dry phase.
“La Nina is still present, but its sphere of influence is no longer on the high-latitude axis. The phenomenon of rain and cold is located on the sub-latitude axis near the equator. From the 17th parallel and above, it is less affected by La Nina during this time, so the weather is not very cold” said Mr. Huy.
In the past 10 years, the number of cold air waves hitting our country has decreased compared to the usual data. (Photo: VTV)
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy also emphasized that the overall average temperature of this winter will be higher than in previous years. Interspersed with warm sunshine, there is still a deep cold, but it will not last.
“This winter, the number of sunny and warm days is much, the number of cold days is still there, but less than in other years. There may still be cold spells, severe cold, and snowfall, but if the general average of these cold spells is combined compared to the average of many years ago, it will not be equal. The probability to have such waves is not much because when the neutral phase or El Nino prevails, the chance to create cold waves will be less”said Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy.
According to Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy, the global climate forecast analysis model (GFS) shows that the northern provinces of Vietnam will have an average temperature 1 – 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average period 1980 – 2009. Meanwhile, the average temperature in the North Central region will be 0.5 – 1 degree Celsius higher. The temperature in the southern provinces remains unchanged compared to every year.
“We are likely to face an extreme hot summer next year when temperatures are forecast to be higher than the multi-year average. It is necessary to consider the saving and efficient use of energy from now on because next summer, there may be a shortage of electricity due to high demand”said Dr. Huy.
Besides, Dr. Huy said that hail may occur at the beginning of the year in the northern provinces, while drought may occur in the Mekong Delta.
“At that time, if the neutral phase lasts longer and is more stable, there will be no extreme weather, but the neutral phase turns into La Nina or El Nino will have more extreme weather” said Dr. Huy.
Winter is warming up
Information from the program “Vietnam today” on VTV1 on November 12 said that winter is not only late, but also tends to warm due to the impact of climate change, especially in the past 10 years. In which, 2016 is considered the warmest year with winter temperatures 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average of many years.
The years 2018, 2019, 2020 are on the list of 5 years with the warmest winter in the period 1986 to 2020. Number of days of extreme cold with average daily temperature below 15 degrees Celsius and number of days of severe cold with average daily temperature below 13 degrees Celsius also decreased significantly.
In our country, according to statistics nearly 60 years ago, the number of cold air waves pouring down from Siberia has decreased sharply. Normally, each year, there are 29-30 cold air waves, but in the past 10 years, it has decreased to 25 times. In particular, from 2019, 17 cold air waves from Siberia poured into our country.
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Weather Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said that this winter, the temperature in the North and North Central regions tends to be higher than the average for many years from 0,5-1 degrees Celsius.
In the coming days, from November 19-20, there will be a wave of cold air, stronger than the one from November 13-14, causing strong winds over the Gulf of Tonkin, the North and the middle of the East Sea.
According to Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Weather Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, this winter, the temperature in the North and North Central regions tends to be 0.5 percent higher than the average for many years. (Photo: Nmha.gov.vn)
At the Announcement Ceremony of the Asia Climate Report 2021, Prof. Dr. Tran Hong Thai, representative of Vietnam at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Vice President of the Asian Meteorological Association Region II (RA) II), Director General of the General Department of Meteorology, Hydrology, information, climate change has been observed in the whole Asia region. Temperatures in 2021 in the region are 0.86 degrees Celsius higher than the 1981-2010 average.
Reduced rainfall and less snow and ice growth have affected crop water availability and reduced yields. Weather and extreme events under the impact of climate change have caused loss of life and property throughout the region.
According to estimates of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), there are 48.3 million people in Asia directly affected by natural disasters, especially storms and floods. This resulted in about 4,000 deaths, about 80% due to flooding.
Overall, it is estimated that natural disasters resulted in a total economic loss of USD 35.6 billion, higher than the average of the past two decades, especially damage from droughts, floods and landslides.
“These numbers do not lie about the vulnerability of the Asian region to climate change. Our region is really in danger because of climate change” Thai said.