Vietnam’s economy is expected to recover at 6.5% this year and grow stronger at 6.7. % in 2023, due to high vaccination rates, increased trade, and continued expansion of fiscal and monetary policy.
“The new Covid-19 outbreak has hampered Vietnam’s economic recovery, tightened the labor market and disrupted manufacturing supply chains in 2021. High vaccination rates have allowed the Government to lift strict pandemic containment measures. The timely change in pandemic containment strategy has helped restore economic activities and ease bottlenecks in the business environment,” said ADB Country Director for Vietnam, Andrew Jeffries.
A recovering labor market, together with the Government’s Economic Recovery and Development Program’s monetary and financial stimulus measures, will boost industrial growth to an expected 9.5% in 2020. 2022. Agricultural output is expected to grow 3.5% this year, driven by recovery in domestic demand and rising global commodity prices.
|Vietnam’s economy is forecasted to recover strongly. Photo: VNA.
The reopening of tourism activities in mid-March and easing of pandemic control measures are expected to boost services, whereby service sector growth is forecast at 5.5% this year. Accelerating disbursement of public investment will promote construction and related economic activities. Coupled with an economic recovery and uncertainty in global oil prices, inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023.
Increased coordination between central and local governments and a rebound in labor mobility will restore confidence among domestic and foreign investors. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which comes into effect on January 1, 2022, is expected to boost trade when the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, establish stable export markets and reliable for Vietnam.
The Asian Development Outlook 2022 also highlights short-term risks that may hinder the recovery of Vietnam’s economy. The high number of Covid-19 cases since mid-March, if not eased, could hinder the economy’s return to normalcy this year. A slow recovery of the global economy, a sharp increase in world oil prices will affect Vietnam’s import-export activities and inflation. The recovery also depends on the Government’s rapid and effective implementation of the economic development and recovery program.