According to the Asian Economic Outlook report released on October 11, the IMF forecasts that global inflation is now expected to peak at 9.5% in 2022 before falling to 4.1% in 2024.
According to the Asian Economic Outlook report released on October 11, the IMF said that inflation pressure is proving to be more widespread and persistent than expected. Almost everywhere, rapidly rising prices, especially for food and energy, are causing severe hardship for households, especially the poor.
Given that situation, the IMF forecasts, global inflation is now expected to peak at 9.5% in 2022 before falling to 4.1% in 2024. Inflation also tends to affect many commodities. other than food and energy. Meanwhile, global core inflation has increased from 4.2% at the end of 2021 to 6.7% in July 2022 for the average country.
Considering the ASEAN-5 region alone including Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, IMF experts estimate that the region’s inflation rate in 2022 will reach 4.7% and drop to 4.4% in 2023.
In particular, Thailand is forecast to have the highest inflation rate in 2022 in the region, up to 6.3%. The next places with the 2nd and 3rd highest inflation rates in the ASEAN-5 region are the Philippines and Indonesia, with inflation rates of 5.3% and 4.6% respectively.
With the inflation rate in 2022 forecasted at 3.8%, Vietnam is the economy with the 4th highest inflation in the ASEAN-5 region. In fifth place is Malaysia, with an inflation rate forecasted at 3.2% in 2022.
Inflation forecast 2022-2023 of countries in the ASEAN-5 region. Source: IMF
By 2023, Indonesia is forecast to have the highest inflation in the ASEAN-5 region, with an estimated inflation rate of 5.5%. The second highest is the Philippines, with an inflation rate forecast to reach 4.3% by 2023.
With the inflation rate in 2023 forecasted at 3.9%, Vietnam is the economy with the 3rd highest inflation in the ASEAN-5 region. Thailand and Malaysia are followed, with inflation rates in both countries estimated at 2.8%.
In general, among the 5 economies of the ASEAN-5 region, Indonesia and Vietnam are the two countries that are forecasted by the IMF to have a higher inflation rate in 2023 than in 2022. Specifically, the inflation rate Indonesia will increase sharply from 4.6% in 2022 to 5.5%. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s inflation is forecast to increase only slightly, from 3.8% in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023.