Formed from a tropical depression moving across the central Philippine Sea towards the East Sea, Typhoon No. 1, internationally known as Talim, is expected to rapidly intensify. Within a span of less than 36 hours, the storm has already escalated by 2-3 levels and shows potential for further strengthening in the coming days.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting suggests that this storm could be the most powerful to impact the North in recent years.
Storm No. 1 is anticipated to bring about large waves and gusty winds along the coastal areas of Quang Ninh to Thai Binh, while simultaneously causing heavy rainfall of up to 500mm in the North within a span of 3 days.
On the afternoon of July 16, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting released an emergency storm warning bulletin. At 16:00, the center of Typhoon No. 1 was situated approximately 510km southeast of the Leizhou Peninsula in China. The storm’s strongest winds were recorded at levels 10-11 (89-117km/h), reaching level 14.
Throughout tonight and tomorrow, the storm is projected to move west-northwest at a speed of 15-20km/h, continuing its intensification. By the afternoon of July 17, the storm’s center is expected to be about 410km southeast of Mong Cai in Quang Ninh, with winds near the center reaching levels 12 and 15. This period marks the peak strength of the storm.
Subsequently, the storm is predicted to maintain its current direction and speed, entering the sea area from Quang Ninh to Thai Binh on the afternoon of July 18. At this point, the storm’s intensity is expected to remain at levels 10 and 13 before gradually weakening as it moves inland.
As a result of the storm’s impact, strong winds are forecasted to begin in the coastal area from Quang Ninh to Nam Dinh from the early morning of July 18, gradually reaching levels 6-7 and increasing to level 8. The area near the center of the storm will experience wind speeds of levels 9-10 and gusts of level 12-13. In the inland areas of the Northeast, strong winds of levels 6-7 and gusts of levels 8-9 are expected.
It is worth noting that from the night of July 17 until July 20, the North is likely to face heavy rainfall, with an average accumulation of 200-400mm and potentially exceeding 500mm in certain locations. Experts caution that the combination of high rainfall within a short duration increases the risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous provinces.
In Thanh Hoa and Nghe An, heavy rain is expected during the same timeframe, albeit with a lower amount, ranging between 100-200mm, and potentially exceeding 300mm in some areas.
At sea, the meteorological agency has issued warnings for the northern waters of the North East Sea, indicating strong winds at levels 7-8, while the vicinity near the center of the storm is likely to experience levels 9-10, later escalating to levels 11-12 and even reaching level 15. These conditions will result in high waves measuring 5-7 meters, creating treacherous sea conditions.
Starting from the afternoon and evening of July 17, the northern parts of the Gulf of Tonkin, including the island districts of Bach Long Vy and Co To, will encounter increasing winds, expected to reach levels 6-7, later intensifying to levels 8-9. Near the center of the storm, wind speeds may reach levels 10-11, with gusts reaching levels 13-14. High waves measuring 3-5 meters are anticipated.
Particularly in the coastal provinces of Quang Ninh to Nam Dinh, sea waves are expected to reach heights of 2-4 meters. Additionally, these areas should be prepared for the risk of storm surges, ranging from 0.5-0.8 meters, potentially causing flooding in low-lying coastal regions, estuaries, and coastal erosion, especially if the storm makes landfall during the afternoon or evening of July 18, coinciding with high tide.