Predicting three economic growth scenarios to 2023

In the draft Project on Ensuring macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major balances, the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has developed 3 forecast scenarios for the last 6 months of the year. 2022 and subsequent years.

Following the Government’s direction at the Government-local online conference and the Government’s regular meeting in June, the Ministry of Planning and Investment developed a draft Project on ensuring macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and secure large balances. The draft has been consulted and will be reported to the Government Standing Committee in July.

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the draft was developed in the context of risks and challenges in macroeconomic stability that increase pressures and risks to our country’s economic recovery in the last 6 months of 2022, and also to the whole country. the following years.

CPI in June 2022, compared to the end of 2021, increased by 3.18%, more than 2 times higher than the increase of the same period in 2019 (1.41%). Generally for 6 months, the price index of raw materials used for production increased by 6.04% over the same period last year; Prices of many imported inputs also increased.

Petrol prices, input materials increased, resonated with the recovery of domestic consumption, creating inflationary pressure, high production costs; reduce production, slow down the recovery of production and business of enterprises. From there, it is possible to affect economic growth, the results of the implementation of the socio-economic development plan in 2022 and the period 2021-2025.

3 growth scenarios from now to 2023

The scheme will assign responsibilities to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Ministry of Finance, the State Bank of Vietnam, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Ministry of Construction, large state corporations and corporations…

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On the basis of the forecast of the domestic and international situation, the Ministry of Planning and Investment develops 3 forecast scenarios for the last 6 months of 2022 and 2023. In the high scenario: the macro economy is stable, inflation is controlled by about 4%, major balances are guaranteed, economic growth in 2022 will reach the set target, in 2023 will reach the average target in the 2021-2025 period (6.5-7%).

In the medium scenario: the macro economy is basically stable, inflation is higher than 4%, but still under control, some major balances are not balanced, economic growth in 2022 will reach the set target. , 2023 is only approaching the average target in the period of 2021-2025 (6.5-7%).

With the low scenario, the macro economy will face many difficulties, inflation will increase, many major balances are not balanced, economic growth in 2022 will reach the set target, and 2023 will be lower than the average target of the period. 2021-2025 (6.5-7%).

Each scenario is accompanied by a forecast and trend determination of a number of groups of indicators on macroeconomic stability: public debt safety, national public finance; stabilize the currency and operation of the banking system; inflation, commodity prices; balance production – consumption, export – import of some important groups of goods and services of the economy; trade balance, import and export of goods; labor, employment.

Previously, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed that the Government strive to achieve the full-year growth target of about 7%, higher than the high target of about 0.5%, in order to create a driving force for economic growth in 2023.

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Source: CafeF

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