According to new research from Global Data, the global tourism industry is expected to fully recover by 2025.
Research shows that international flights will reach 68% of pre-pandemic levels globally by 2022 and are expected to increase to 82% by 2023 and 97% by 2024. In 2025, the number is expected to reach 101% compared to 2019 or about 1.5 billion international movements.
Outlook from North America
Hannah Free, a travel analyst at GlobalData, said the US has risen to become the world’s largest outbound travel market by 2021.
“Outbound travel from North America showed improvement in 2021 as international departures increased by 15% year-on-year. In 2022, this is forecast to reach 69% of 2019 levels, before fully recovering. By 2024, North America will be the first region in the world to hit the 102% mark compared to 2019,” Free said.
In addition, the recovery rate of Europe’s tourism industry is considered to be on par with that of North America. In 2022, outbound tourism in the continent will reach 69% of the figure of 2019.
“As travel confidence rebuilds, the intra-European market is expected to benefit, fueled by a preference for short-haul travel,” said Hannah Free.
However, according to the female expert, tourism recovery will still be affected by many other factors such as inflation, the rising cost of living and conflict in Ukraine.
“By 2025, international departures are expected to be 98% of the level of 2019. Geographically, the current conflicts have not yet spread beyond Ukraine’s borders. However, Russia was the world’s 5th largest outbound tourism market in 2019, while Ukraine ranked 12th. Going forward, the limited number of outbound travel from these countries will hinder the overall recovery of European tourism.”, Ms. Free analyzed.
Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region is forecasted to lag behind Europe and North America. It is expected that the number of departures from this region this year will only reach 67% compared to 2019, because the lifting of travel restrictions in the region is slower, especially in China, the largest foreign tourism market in the region.
Free said: “Global international travel is on track to recover back to pre-pandemic levels by 2025. Now, however, people’s travel needs are slowly changing. Consumers favor authentic experiences, demand personalized travel services that combine business and leisure travel, and are more conscious of their environmental impact. There is still a long way to go to reach normalcy. However, the potential for the slowest recovery by 2025 is a good reason for the tourism and travel industry to be optimistic for the future.”